Methodology: how the Strikeo model works
Strikeo is an MLB analytics tool. Every day the model evaluates each scheduled game, compares its own estimate against the betting market, and only publishes a pick when the numbers genuinely justify it. This page explains, in plain language, how that process works and how we verify our results.
What the model looks at
Each game is scored across several groups of signals built from public MLB statistics:
- Starting pitching. Beyond traditional ERA, the model leans on estimators that better capture true skill — xERA and SIERA — together with strikeout rate (K%) and command indicators (walk rate, quality of contact allowed). Recent form is weighted so a starter's last few outings matter more than a stale season-long average.
- Offense. Team hitting is measured with wRC+ and OPS, including splits versus left-handed and right-handed pitching, so the matchup against the actual starter on the mound is what counts.
- Bullpen. Relief quality matters, but so does availability: the model tracks each bullpen's workload over the previous three days to flag tired or depleted relief corps.
- First inning. Dedicated signals estimate the probability of early runs (NRFI/YRFI), combining each starter's first-inning history with the top of each lineup.
Anchored to the market, not against it
The model does not price games from scratch. It starts from the sportsbook consensus: we take the market odds, remove the bookmaker's margin (the vig) to obtain the no-vig implied probability, and use that as the baseline. The model's evidence then adjusts that baseline up or down. The difference between our adjusted probability and the market's implied probability is the edge.
A pick is only published when two conditions hold: the edge exceeds a minimum threshold that depends on the market (for example, around 5% on totals), and the expected value (EV) of the bet at the available price is positive. If either condition fails, nothing is published for that market.
Quality over volume
Most days there is no pick at all. That is by design, not a malfunction. Betting markets on MLB are efficient, and genuine edges are rare; publishing a daily card regardless of merit would only dilute quality. When the model passes on a slate, the site shows why — which games came close and which signals fell short — so "no pick today" is itself informative.
Leans
Alongside full picks, the model publishes leans: directional inclinations that did not clear the edge threshold, shown without a recommended price. Each lean includes the reasoning behind it and, just as important, an explicit "why it could fail" section covering the main counterarguments.
Verification and track record
Every published pick is settled automatically against the official MLB result — no manual grading, no silent deletions. The complete history (record, ROI, and units won or lost) is public on the track record page, starting from the cutover to model v2. We also measure CLV (closing line value): whether the prices we published beat the market's closing line. CLV is a quality control on the process itself, independent of short-term win-loss luck.
Limitations
Baseball has enormous variance: a well-founded pick can lose, and a bad one can win. Some signals rely on short samples (a starter's recent outings, early-season team stats) and carry real uncertainty. Strikeo publishes probabilities and reasoning — never certainties. No result is guaranteed, and nothing on this site is betting or financial advice. If you bet, do so legally, responsibly, and only with money you can afford to lose.
New to the terminology? See the glossary for definitions of edge, EV, CLV, and every other term used on the site.