Glossary
Every term used across Strikeo's picks, leans and market analysis, explained in plain language. For how these pieces fit together, see the methodology.
- Edge
- The difference between the model's estimated probability and the probability implied by the market price. A +5% edge means the model believes the event is 5 percentage points more likely than the price suggests.
- Expected value (EV)
- The average profit or loss of a bet if it could be repeated many times at the same price. Positive EV means the bet is profitable in the long run, even though any single result can lose.
- Moneyline
- A straight bet on which team wins the game, with no run margin involved. Favorites pay less than the money risked; underdogs pay more.
- Line / spread
- The points or runs margin a sportsbook uses to balance two uneven teams. The favorite must win by more than the margin; the underdog can lose by less or win outright.
- Run line
- Baseball's standard spread, almost always 1.5 runs. A -1.5 favorite must win by two or more; a +1.5 underdog covers by winning or losing by exactly one.
- Total (over/under)
- A bet on the combined runs scored by both teams, playing whether the final total lands above (over) or below (under) the sportsbook's posted number.
- Team total
- A variant of the total applied to a single team's runs instead of the combined score. Useful when the model's signal points at one specific offense.
- F5 (first 5 innings)
- Markets that only count the first five innings. They isolate the starting-pitcher matchup and reduce the influence of the bullpens.
- NRFI / YRFI
- "No Run First Inning" / "Yes Run First Inning": a bet on whether at least one run is scored (or not) in the first inning of the game.
- Strikeout prop
- A bet on how many strikeouts a starting pitcher will record, usually as an over/under against a posted line (for example, 6.5 Ks).
- Vig / juice
- The margin a sportsbook builds into its prices to guarantee its profit. It's why the implied probabilities of all outcomes add up to more than 100%.
- Implied probability
- The probability "hidden" inside a price. Odds of -110 imply roughly 52.4%. Removing the vig yields the fair implied probability the model uses as its baseline.
- Closing line and CLV
- The closing line is the last available price before first pitch, considered the most efficient. CLV (closing line value) measures whether the price you took beat the close: consistently beating it is the strongest sign of a sound process.
- Unit
- A standard measure of bet size, typically 1% of the bankroll. Reporting results in units makes performance comparable regardless of how much money anyone plays with.
- ROI
- Return on investment: units won divided by units risked, expressed as a percentage. A +4% ROI means winning 4 units for every 100 wagered.
- Bankroll
- The total money set aside exclusively for betting, kept separate from personal finances. Bankroll management defines how much to risk per bet in order to survive losing streaks.
- Push
- A tie between the bet and the result (for example, a total of 9 in a game that ends exactly 5-4). The bet is voided and the stake returned.
- Calibration
- How well a model's probabilities match reality: events it rates at 60% should happen about 60% of the time. A calibrated model is more valuable than one that merely 'picks winners'.
- wRC+
- Weighted Runs Created Plus: total offensive production adjusted for ballpark and era, where 100 is league average. A 120 wRC+ means an offense 20% better than average.
- SIERA / xERA
- Estimators of a pitcher's 'true' effectiveness. SIERA models strikeouts, walks and contact type; xERA starts from the quality of contact allowed (exit velocity and launch angle). Both predict the future better than traditional ERA.